Carlos Rodon's rough start a rare off night for Yankees' rotation
Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodón pitches against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on Sunday. Credit: Ed Murray
A year ago, through the Yankees’ first 63 games, Carlos Rodon had the second-worst ERA in their rotation. But that isn’t a criticism of Rodon as much as a statement about the rest of the starting staff, which did an astonishing job covering for the injured Gerrit Cole, who missed the first 11 weeks with elbow inflammation.
Rodon was supposed to be the $162 million fill-in for Cole last season, based largely on his salary and resume. Instead, his 3.08 ERA wound up at the back end of the supporting cast, behind Luis Gil (1.82 ERA), Clarke Schmidt (2.52) and Marcus Stroman (2.60).
Fast-forward to now, and the Yankees have coped with a similar predicament minus Cole, lost until 2026 after Tommy John surgery, and the additional burden of Gil being sidelined by a lat muscle strain.
Up until Sunday night, Max Fried’s brilliance and Rodon’s resurgence had done a masterful job steering the rotation at the front, but the Red Sox derailed the latter trend during an 11-7 shellacking of the Yankees to take the weekend series.
Rodon cruised through four scoreless innings, allowing only an infield hit, then stumbled in the fifth with two outs. He walked No. 8 hitter Ceddanne Rafaela and No. 9 hitter Kristian Campbell hit a tying two-run homer inside the rightfield foul pole.
Rodon didn’t retire a batter in the sixth, drilling Rafael Devers, walking Rob Refsnyder and teeing up a three-run shot by Carlos Narvaez.
“Falling behind hitters and giving out free bases, it’s a no-go,” Rodon said.
Maybe Rodon couldn’t fill the substitute ace role last season, but the Yankees absolutely need him as a pillar of this year’s rotation, so Sunday’s pratfall — his first loss since April 13 — was a disturbing development. The five earned runs matched his high for the season (April 7) and were more than he’d allowed in his previous four starts total, jumping his ERA from 2.49 to 2.87.
Even when Rodon was rolling with Fried, this staff hasn’t duplicated the overall performance through the first nine weeks of last season, when the starters’ 2.71 ERA was second in the majors, trailing only the Phillies (2.64). This season, the Yankees’ rotation ERA is more than a full run higher (3.75) and is tied with Atlanta for 14th overall.
Rodon entered Sunday night’s series finale with a 1.27 ERA in his last nine starts (7-0). Fried, signed to be a $218 million co-ace with Cole, is 8-1 with a 1.78 ERA, fourth-best in MLB. Those two were responsible for 16 of the rotation’s 27 wins, which was tied with the Mets for the most in the sport, and the starting staff as a whole is credited with 69.2% of the Yankees’ victory total (39).
“That’s fueled what’s been a pretty good run to get our record in a good place,” manager Aaron Boone said Sunday afternoon. “It’s been fueled by the consistency of the starting pitching and that’s ultimately where it begins.”
With Gil not expected back until July, however, the No. 3 through 5 slots should come under closer scrutiny. Schmidt’s performance has been uneven (2-3, 4.04 ERA) since he was initially delayed by a shoulder issue, and it’s hard to tell if the past week’s hiccups from Will Warren and Ryan Yarbrough are indicators of a potential unraveling further down the line.
Warren has a 14.85 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs, nine hits, two homers and eight walks in 6 2⁄3 innings. The Red Sox pummeled the previously untouchable Yarbrough for eight runs in four innings Saturday night, driving up his ERA from 2.83 to 4.17.
None of that should necessarily come as a shock. It’s just that after seeing the Yankees unexpectedly cruise with their B-listers last season, seeing these types of blowups feels like an anomaly.
“It’s tough out there,” said Cole, who’s doubled as an assistant pitching coach during his rehab. “And I think as the season goes on, the idea is to maintain how well these guys can pitch when they’re at their best. Try to shave one or two runs off the poor performance just to give ourselves a better chance to win those games.”
In addition to Gil, the Yankees also have Stroman working his way back from a knee problem, but it seems unlikely he’ll match what he did through the first months of last season.
As well as that 2024 rotation pitched in Cole’s absence, there was a leveling off after his return. By season’s end, the Yankees’ starters tumbled to 11th with a 3.85 ERA, which is more on par with where the rotation is now (and that included 17 starts from Cole, who finished 8-5 with a 3.41 ERA).
“It’s shaking out all right so far,” Cole said of this year’s crew. “We were kind of maybe over-performing last year and then regressed, but we’re still winning games in both scenarios. Hopefully we continue to improve as we go forward and these guys get more innings under their belt.”
But was Sunday night just a blip for Rodon? Will Gil return to his Rookie of the Year dominance? Such questions mean the Yankees are going to need more reassuring signs from the arms currently tasked with some of the heavy lifting.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
